Chinese rubber chemical market summary (2018-2019)
In 2018, it has been a perfect ending. The overall market demand is not as prosperous as expected in the previous year. The rubber industry has undergone considerable integration. More than 50 tire factories were closed throughout the year, and domestic sales were affected by the shrinking sales of the automotive industry in the fourth quarter. Exports are affected by the increase in US tariffs; the demand for rubber industry has led to a lack of warmth in small industries, and there has been no extreme tension throughout the year. The overall supply and demand has been stable, regardless of the price of accelerators and antioxidants. However, the price of raw materials led by oil has been in a downward channel during the same period, and it basically covers the loss of profits caused by the price reduction of products. The originally expected smog weather restriction phenomenon is basically non-existent, so the overall profit margin of the auxiliary manufacturers is still relatively rich this year.
After a year of decline in the raw materials of rubber auxiliaries, it is basically at a historical low level. In the case of a small change in oil prices, it should be relatively stable.
The main intermediate of the accelerator is the promoter M, M is affected by the policy of continuing to be more environmentally friendly this year, and the effective capacity of the society is further shrinking, resulting in the acid-base method M is tightening and the solvent supply M is relatively loose. 5,000 yuan / ton, so many NS, CBS factories have to accept the solvent method M as raw materials to produce downstream products, but also promote the acceptance of the solvent method M, the current price difference between the solvent method M and the acid-base method M returned to normal, but The overall supply of M is also tight, and the profit margin is rich. In 2019, some new accelerator production capacity will be gradually released, and there will be some room for the overall profit margin of the accelerator. The time and magnitude of price reduction are mainly affected by the supply and demand pattern.
The supply pattern of antioxidants is basically stable. In recent years, there has been no major change in manufacturers and production capacity. The price is more affected by the cost of raw materials. At present, the price of antioxidants has fallen to a historical low, and the relative price of accelerators can be reduced. However, there are still some space before the Spring Festival. Price reduction pressure, specific price reduction behavior depends on the manufacturer’s policy.
The demand for the overall rubber industry will not be too optimistic next year. There is no sign of improvement in the auto industry. There are many uncertainties in the trade war, but it will never be easily settled. The auxiliaries and tire stocks in the US are expected to be in preparation for the trade war. At the high level, the dividends brought about by the reduction in raw material costs are also basically reduced. In the case of little change in oil prices, the price of the auxiliary industry is expected to remain low. As the supply of additives products increases, there is still room for price reduction. The market share of various products will change in the next few years.